Monday, December 17, 2007

Dramatic Growth of Open Access & Predictions for 2008: Minor Update

Two minor updates to my Dramatic Growth of Open Access 2007 (Interim) & Predictions for 2008.

It should be noted that my prediction that 15% of peer-reviewed scholarly journals will be fully open access and listed in DOAJ by the end of 2008 is a very conservative estimate. Indeed, by some estimates, we are already there; that is, the total number of scholarly, peer-reviewed journals in the world is generally estimated to be 20,000 - 25,000. If the total is 20,000, then the 3,000 journals in DOAJ is already 15% of the total.

I have added a few numbers for repositories for 2006 from Peter Suber's Jan. 1, 2007 SPARC Open Access Newsletter (for OpenDOAR, Scientific Commons, and These numbers confirm and support other data illustrating a dramatic rise in the number of repositories in 2007.

Watch for another update to the open data version on Dec. 31, 2007.